After years of memory price volatility, the industry is now experiencing a prolonged period of elevated and rising prices, not the typical seasonal dips buyers expected. Even though memory pricing traditionally softens early in the year, DRAM and NAND flash prices have continued climbing through late 2025 and into 2026 — a trend that has caught many businesses off guard.
This article explains why prices are still rising and provides a realistic look at when the market might stabilize.
What’s Happening Right Now
Prices Are Rising Sharply
Market analysts report that DRAM contract prices have surged dramatically, with forecasts showing increases of about 55–60 percent quarter-on-quarter for early 2026, and NAND flash contract pricing also rising strongly. This includes consumer SSDs, which are expected to climb even more than typical flash segments due to tight wafer supply.
Price escalation has already been evident: memory prices for mainstream DDR5 modules and SSDs increased significantly throughout 2025, and the momentum has carried into 2026, even as normal seasonal reductions failed to appear.
Supply Remains Tight
Despite intentions to increase output, production growth is not keeping pace with demand. Analysts estimate that supply growth in 2026 for DRAM and NAND will be below historical norms — broadly in the mid-teens percentage range year-over-year — while demand continues to grow faster, especially in enterprise and data center applications.
Even major producers like Samsung are increasing wafer output only modestly, and this incremental supply increase will not significantly relieve global shortages while demand stays strong.
Why Prices Are Still Rising
1. AI and Data Center Demand
AI infrastructure requires vast amounts of both DRAM and NAND flash. Data centers now consume disproportionate shares of global memory output, with some estimates suggesting up to 70 percent of all memory chips produced in 2026 will go toward data centers and AI workloads.
High-performance memory like HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is essential for AI accelerators, but HBM uses significantly more wafer capacity per bit than standard memory. This shifts production focus toward profitable AI segments at the expense of mainstream DDR and NAND used in PCs, laptops, and consumer SSDs.
2. Strategic Capacity Allocation by Manufacturers
To avoid repeating the oversupply crashes of past memory cycles, manufacturers have adopted disciplined production strategies. Instead of producing at full tilt for all product types, they are focusing capacity on higher-margin products and limiting output for commodity segments, which keeps supply tight and supports higher pricing.
3. Legacy Product Phase-Out and Node Shifts
Older memory products, especially certain types of NAND, are being phased out, and capacity is being shifted to new technologies. This creates temporary supply constraints and reduces the availability of some legacy parts, helping keep prices elevated.
4. Geopolitical and Supply Chain Friction
Global trade tensions and restructuring of supply chains add friction to memory production and logistics. These forces can increase lead times and reduce supply flexibility, especially for buyers in regions affected by export controls or localized manufacturing strategies.
When Can We Expect Stability?
Short-Term (Next 6–12 Months)
In the immediate term, stability is unlikely. Prices are expected to remain elevated and volatile as long as:
• AI and hyperscale data center demand continues to grow rapidly
• Suppliers maintain tight control over wafer capacity
• Inventories stay low compared to demand
The usual seasonal price declines have not appeared, making memory markets behave more like a tight supply environment than a typical commodity market with predictable cycles.
Medium-Term (12–24 Months)
Memory price stabilization typically requires:
• Supply growth that outpaces demand growth
• Inventory levels returning to comfortable levels
• New manufacturing capacity ramping up fully
These factors often take years to materialize because of the long lead times involved in semiconductor fabrication capacity expansion. Industry watchers generally point to late 2026 into 2027 before supply begins to materially catch up with demand and price movements become less dramatic.
Notably, even when stabilization begins, prices may settle at a higher baseline than what buyers experienced in earlier cycles. This reflects a structural shift toward prioritizing high-performance memory and a more disciplined supply strategy.
What Stability Will Look Like
“Stabilization” doesn’t mean prices return to historical lows. It means:
• Smaller month-to-month changes
• Gradual pricing trends instead of sharp hikes
• Predictability for budgeting and procurement
• More consistent availability
Until industry supply expands meaningfully and allocation strategies shift back toward broader segments, memory pricing will remain stronger and stickier than in past cycles.
What Buyers Should Do Today
Given current conditions:
• Plan procurement earlier and build buffer stock if possible
• Consider locking in supply agreements with reliable suppliers
• Avoid waiting for steep drops — historical patterns no longer apply
• Use rolling forecasting rather than trying to time specific price bottoms
For many businesses, flexibility and strategic planning are now more important than attempting to “time the market” — because the market has fundamentally changed.
Final Thoughts
Memory pricing in 2026 reflects deeper structural shifts in the semiconductor market. The rise of AI, disciplined supply strategies by manufacturers, and slower capacity expansion are all driving continued price pressure for DRAM, SSDs, and flash memory. While normalization is on the horizon, true stabilization — with pricing that is both predictable and sustainable — is likely still months away, with meaningful relief expected closer to late 2026 or early 2027.
This new environment requires a different mindset from buyers. Stability now means predictability, not flat or falling prices.